The Iowa caucuses are tonight. What’s going to happen? On the Republican side, either Donald Trump will win, or Ted Cruz will win. According to a poll conducted by Ann Selzer, unanimously considered the best pollster in Iowa, Trump will win. That’s a good reason to feel confident in a Trump victory.

What’s the best savvy pundit argument against a Trump victory? Well, it would depend on high turnout. Cruz’s closing message to his supporters is that he is depending on their support. Contrarily, Trump’s campaign is built on his frontrunner status. If enough of his bandwagon supporters feel his victory is inevitable—something Trump pretty regularly tells everyone—they may not feel it is urgent that they go out and caucus for him. Telling voters that the other guy will win unless you show up is a bit more motivating than saying that you already have this in the bag.

On the other hand: Trust the poll, until it is proven wrong.

Meanwhile, Marco Rubio will either lose in a way that allows him to make the case that he’s the official candidate of the Republican mainstream—which might not actually mean anything, at this point—or he’ll lose in a way that basically confirms that he’s an oddly bad candidate.

On the Democratic side, it’s probably going to be Hillary Clinton. Selzer has her leading very slightly, and in the event of a very close split in support, the Clinton campaign’s probably got the organizational edge. If Bernie Sanders does win, though, we’ll get a few weeks of fun, panicky, “Clinton is doomed” stories.

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